Danger Ratings and the odds of triggering a potentially fatal avalanche

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For those that are interested in the technical nuances of avalanche behavior, this succinct whitepaper that discusses the probabilities of triggering a fatal avalanche within the specific Avalanche Danger Ratings.

http://schulich.ucalgary.ca/asarc/files/asarc/TriggeringOdds_Tar_Jamieson.pdf

“Avalanche risk depends on the probability of an avalanche affecting people (or property) and the expected consequences. For the consequence term in our analysis, we chose to ignore injuries and focus on the probability of death. For any size of avalanche in accident reports, this probability is given in Avalanche Accidents in Canada in 1984-96 on avalanche.ca’s Knowledge Center. The remaining part of the risk calculation is the probability of being caught. Because upwards of 90% of fatal avalanches are triggered by people, we can focus on the probability of triggering a potentially fatal avalanche”

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